Given California’s daunting — even existential — array of social, economic and fiscal crises, it’s remarkable that anyone would volunteer to become its governor.
However, Gavin Newsom will vacate the office 19 months hence, with most of those crises still in place, and at least seven Democratic politicians yearn to succeed him.
Former state Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Rep. Katie Porter, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former State Controller Betty Yee put themselves on display Monday evening during a legislative conference of the state’s major union organizations.
It was what politicians call a “beauty contest,” in which candidates are given opportunities to briefly strut their stuff without any deep oratory. It was also an opportunity for the union leaders to pin them down on their top bread-and-butter issues, such as granting unemployment insurance benefits to striking workers, mandatory use of union labor in construction projects and more money for those projects, including the financially troubled bullet train.
With Lorena Gonzalez, head of the California Labor Federation, and Chris Hannan, president of the building trades, shooting the questions, the candidates were asked to wave flags indicating whether they supported the various union objectives.
Most toed the union line, although Villaraigosa, who sparred with education unions during his mayoralty, demurred on the unemployment insurance issue, citing its cost and the state’s chronic budget deficits.
That and some other issues were indirect potshots at Newsom, who has occasionally bucked the unions. He rejected striker unemployment benefits and his crusade to wean California from oil, which is beginning to shut down its refineries, drew opposition from the candidates when queried by refinery union members. Several said the campaign against oil would raise Californians’ already high costs of living and, as Yee put it, “cannot be on the backs of workers.”
As the “salon” continued, it was obvious that two people not in the ballroom of Sacramento’s downtown Sheraton Hotel were looming over the event: President Donald Trump and the woman he defeated last fall, former Vice President (and California senator) Kamala Harris.
Surprisingly, only Kounalakis brought up Trump without being prompted, since opposing Trump is a sacred tenet of California’s Democratic politicians. She vowed unrelenting resistance and others later followed her lead. However, Villaraigosa continued to somewhat set himself apart, saying “we can’t just take on Trump” but must address California’s many problems.
Harris was an even more powerful specter as she plays it coy on whether to rekindle her political career by running for governor. She apparently is weighing whether to do that or resume her quest for the White House in 2028, when Trump presumably will end his second term and depart.
A presidential rerun could put her in direct conflict with Newsom, who continues to emit indications of considering a White House campaign himself, while publicly denying such ambitions.
Were Harris to seek the governorship, polls indicate that she would be the immediate frontrunner, particularly in a crowded field of primary election hopefuls. However, it’s also likely that some of the seven current political samurai would drop out should Harris run. With a smaller field, one of the remaining Democrats might make the November runoff in the top-two primary, setting up a two-person duel.
Until Harris decides, however, everything is tentative and unsettled, including efforts to raise the many millions of dollars needed to campaign for statewide office in California. The union leaders who staged Monday’s event will also be major sources of campaign money for whomever they finally endorse.
Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.