Wood said there is also growing interest in offering China as a special asset class of its own with the rest of the emerging markets managed separately. Creating an emerging markets (EM) basket excluding China would benefit markets like India and Taiwan as China’s underperformance would weigh down the EM index returns. China has the highest country weightage on the EM indices.
“Still tactically there is a widespread acknowledgment that India has already done well in the near term while the possibility of a renewed period of China outperformance is rising,” said Wood. “In this context, recent cover stories in The Economist are causing many to wonder if this is a classic contrarian indicator.”
Several global investors have turned cautious about China of late on account of stress in the property markets and rising risks of default among property developers, prompting Beijing to step in with policy support for its real estate sector.
Separately, Nomura said the markets might still be underestimating the aftermath of the significant collapse in China’s property sector, which accounts for more than half of global new home sales and home building.
“Our China team does not believe these measures will suffice, as restrictions on home transactions and land supply remain in place in large cities, and weak exports, geopolitical tensions and shaky confidence remain headwinds,” said Nomura’s economists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh in a note to clients on Friday.
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