NFL football is back!
As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the The Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.”
When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story. Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space.
Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the upcoming week in the NFL.
1. Close but no cigar is getting old in Buffalo
To start the 2023 season, six of the top 10 paid players on the Buffalo Bills are 29 or older. One those players is star defensive end Von Miller, who will begin the season on the physically unable to perform list as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered on American Thanksgiving last season.
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If this team is going to get over the hump it has to happen now as its window is closing. The Bills are far older than their rivals atop the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals.
2. Lamar is Back in Baltimore
Before Lamar Jackson got hurt last year, Baltimore was top 10 in most important offensive categories including DVOA (defence-adjusted value over average). When Jackson is healthy, the Ravens win, and play well on offence.
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As of Week 11 last season, they were first in rushing, ninth in passing and seventh in points per play. Jackson is 46-19 as a starter and will break camp with by far the most offensive fire power at his disposal in his NFL career with the drafting of Zay Flowers and the free agent acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr.
3. Here’s why the Indianapolis Colts should pay Jonathan Taylor
The Indianapolis Colts offence has been all about Jonathon Taylor.
When Taylor is on the field, not only is he highly productive but their quarterbacks play better.
When Taylor is on the field the Colts QBR is 58, yards per pass attempt is 7.5, and the team averages five yards per rush. When Taylor is off the field the QBR drops to 43, with just 6.4 yards per attempt, and three yards per rush for the team.
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The Colts have had eight different starting quarterbacks in the last eight years. This season should be about setting up rookie QB Anthony Richardson up for success — something that’s easier to do with Taylor on the field.
Indianapolis has the sixth-most cap space this year and the fifth-most cap space next year. The Colts have the money to pay Taylor — they’re just being stubborn, which will hurt their first-round pick in Richardson more than it hurts Taylor.
4. Here’s why you shouldn’t trade for, then pay Taylor
The case against paying Taylor has little to do with him at this point and everything to do with the position he plays and basic economics. If you want to win, you don’t have to give up the assets and cap space that acquiring Taylor would take to do it.
Look no further than the list of the last nine starting running backs on Super Bowl champions: Isiah Pacheco, Cam Akers, Leonard Fournette, Damien Williams, Sony Michel, LeGarrette Blount, LeGarrette Blount, C.J. Anderson and LeGarrette Blount. Nice players but not likely any end up in Canton with a Hall-Of-Fame bust.
On the flip side, let’s look at the highest paid running backs: Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs. They might win you a fantasy championship but none of them have played in a Super Bowl — never mind won one.
The data is undeniable– the supply and demand at the position means you don’t need to spend at the RB position in order to win and having a great one isn’t a prerequisite to winning the way the QB position is.
5. There’s no doubt the Chiefs should play Chris Jones
No, I’m not just overreacting to their Week 1 loss, where the defence actually played well against the Detroit Lions. The star defensive tackle said on social media he may not report until Week 8 as he’s sitting out while in the final year of his contract and wants a new one.
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Week 8 is the longest he can wait and still contractually get credit for playing a season. Patrick Mahomes can try valiantly to make up for all-pros not being on the field on offence, but he certainly can’t on defence. The eye test tells you Jones is a game wrecker and the numbers back it up.
Not only did he have 15.5 sacks last year, tied for fourth in the NFL, he had the most sacks created by double team and most wins against a double team. The four-time all-pro was a first team all-pro last year, and he led all defensive lineman in snaps, pass rush win rate and pressures. On top of all that, he’s clutch — 71 per cent of his sacks in the regular season ended an opponent’s drive. He also led the league with 34 fourth-quarter pressures.
Kansas City has led the league in pressure percentage at 32 per cent in the last five years, and Jones is a big reason why.
When Jones was on the field during that span, the opposing QBR was 52, pressure percentage 35 per cent, and third-down percentage allowed was 38 per cent.
Coming into this season, when Jones was off the field, the QBR was 66, with a 27-per-cent pressure percentage and 48-per-cent third-down percentage allowed. Jones is the third-best player on their team behind Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce and the best defensive player by far. If the Chiefs wait until Week 8, they might as well kiss the home field in the AFC and potentially the division championship away.
6. McDaniels on the hot seat
Las Vegas Raiders coach Josh McDaniels is 17-28 as a head coach. In six seasons without Tom Brady or Bill Belichick, his offence has never finished in the top half of the league in DVOA.
The Raiders last year were 1-5 in games when they had a double-digit lead. Every other team was 84-9 with double digit leads. Unless those numbers trend in the opposite direction in 2023, McDaniels’ inability to manage a game and manufacture offence will be his downfall in Las Vegas.
7. Pick Kenny Pickett
Every year a sophomore QB takes a jump to Pro Bowl- if not MVP-level status, we’ve seen it in the past with Jackson, Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
Who could it be this year? Whether in fantasy or real life, don’t sleep on Kenny Pickett.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers were 7-5 in Pickett starts and 5-1 in his last six starts in which he threw four touchdowns and just one interception. He’s kept that momentum in 2023.
In the pre-season, Pickett led the NFL in yards per attempt at 13.3, first-down percentage at 67 per cent and passer rating at 158.3. It wasn’t just empty calories putting up stats.
Pickett was on the field for five drives during the pre-season. All five drives led to touchdowns. If Pickett takes a jump this year receiver George Pickens likely will also. Pickett had the best QBR to a single target in the NFL last year, putting up 98 when throwing to Pickens across 58 targets.
8. Sam the rushing man
Sam Howell is the 12th QB to start for the Washington Commanders in the last five seasons. The last time a Washington QB started every game in a season was Kirk Cousins in 2017. They’re hoping that streak ends with Howell.
Many are surprised the Commanders went all in on Howell after he only played a meaningless game against the Dallas Cowboys to end the regular season last year. It’s important to note Howell was considered a first-round pick in his junior year before all the offensive talent around him left at North Carolina. In his senior year the entire program struggled, and he dropped to the fourth round.
But he still showed elite offensive skill. Howell is a next level athlete. In his last season in the NCAA, he rushed for 828 yards and 11 TDs — that’s more than what Anthony Richardson just did at Florida.
9. Talented Tua
This is the first time Tua Tagovailoa has been in the same offence, with the same offensive co-ordinator for two straight years since high school. You read that correctly. If the Miami Dolphins quarterback can couple that continuity with the continuity of staying on the field and staying healthy, he could put up scary numbers.
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In the last two years, he’s missed eight games, including five games in concussion protocol last year. But when he played, he was next-level good. The team was 8-5 in his 13 starts with Tagovailoa throwing 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. When he was on the field last year, Tagovailoa led all quarterbacks in passer rating and yards per attempt and had the second-highest touchdown rate.
More importantly he lifted the offensive players around him. Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle had no receiving touchdowns without Tagovailoa in the regular season. Tagovailoa contemplated retirement in the offseason as the health concerns are real — but so is his talent.
10. Protect Aaron Rodgers at all costs
The New York Jets offensive line is about to be the most scrutinized position group in football. Their level of play will decide if the Jets are a Super Bowl contender.
The Jets had 18 different line combinations last year. New York’s O-line was 21st in pass block win rate last season, which cause their quarterbacks to be pressured on 29.8 per cent of drop-backs.
Without doing much to rectify it, the issue has transferred over to this season. Rodgers was sacked six times in 10 drop-backs versus Tampa in a scrimmage.
The game is about to get real and out the gate the Jets schedule is not only tough it is full of talented pass rushes.
Here are the Jets’ first eight opponents with their 2022 QB pressure ranking.
Week 1: Buffalo Bills (14)
Week 2: Dallas Cowboys (1)
Week 3: New England Patriots (5)
Week 4: Kansas City Chiefs (3)
Week 5: Denver Broncos (10)
Week 6: Philadelphia Eagles (7)
Week 8: New York Giants (6)
Week 9: Los Angeles Chargers (9)
During Rodgers’ last five seasons in Green Bay, the Packers lead the NFL in pass block win rate. He no longer will have the luxury of protection, which might literally and physically hurt him. Rodgers played just four games on turf last season, while this year the 40-year-old will play 14 on the not so forgiving artificial surface.
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